
5th July 2009, 04:13 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 3,012
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
Well maybe we could both chip in Stix and try to improve the lot of those punters always putting money into their accounts [me too now and then]. As a for straight tipping, you could put your winning tips up on Wednesdays and I could put mine up on Sat. or vis-a-vis [I'm not bothered], though I warn everyone, I'm no great shakes on tipping during the winter!
Apart from that my general advice to any punter is to note these things:
1. Overall speed, sectional ability and the way races are run and the importance of jockies.
2. The importance of pace [overall time ability]. Slow horses rarely win races, so look out for easy wins in slow time. It shortens odds on these horses and mostly they haven't a hope in aaaa of winning again.
3. Fast early pace means fast overall time. Last sectionals with fast early pace is worth noting. Fast last sectionals with slow early pace is not worth noting at all.
4. First and foremost, is how the race will be run. Fast or slow pace.
Profile each horse considering above and suitability in today's race.
5. Money management: How you put your money on. Most punter beat themselves. Bet for the win only [except Partypooper] for starters. Money on depends on price. The bigger the price, the smaller the bet [risk management]. The Market is mostly very efficient. Typically the most profitable hoses are $3 to $6.50. Any more than 4 to 8 bets on a typical Sat. is overbet cards.
6. Coping with runs of outs with nerves of steel.
7. Don't be afraid to bet 2 horses in a race if betting longer odds.
8. Exotics, forget them except maybe quins.
9. Midweeks opportunities: Unlike Saturdays, there are less genuine chances so there can be very good bets to be had.
9. Punters are mostly concerned 90% with their selections, yet only 10% with their betting approach.
10. Races never to bet on: Regardless of what anyone says, long term you will never come out in front in these races: 1000m races [one slip from the barriers and they have missed the boat], Fillies and Mares races, CUP races and races beyond 2200m., Jump races, Maidens and 2yr. old races, 3yr. old races before November. Never bet on these races as long term you will lose. If having a bet on them [and I often do, Bet $2-5 the win]. If anyone would like to dispute the lousy ability to win on these races, put your selections up for these races over a few months and I'll put up 20/1 saying you will lose on all of them over that period.
These rules are fairly basic and within everyone of them is a lot of detail which requires lots of work to get your head around.
With technology nowadays, the pro. punters and the basic winning punters who aren't pros. are still there, but most probably you won't see them at the track or hear of them. So who are they? Except for a few, they are unknown, but they are certainly there.
And like Stix says, discipline is a key [not the only one] to winning.
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Excellent post crash.
My approach, as I've mentioned previously is to look at 3 and 4 yo males, in form and racing in the same class - and whilst 2 kg+ shouldn't matter to beast at over 500kg's.... well in my approach it does....and I leave Sydney alone, it's my abyss in any form of betting - system, form or dart board 
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Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!
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