Hi Chrome,

I thought my statement would arouse a little response. It goes against the grain or "set your prices and bet the overs" that has been espoused for more than 30 years. I think it is only partially right in its education of punters though...Perhaps I should explain myself further....

The principle is that you should bet when you have an advantage, I think we all agree on that?

However, just because you price a horse at $3.50 and it is $3.80 or $4.00 in the market, that doesn't necessarily mean you have an advantage worthwhile betting into. By itself it is nothing more than a mathemtical difference in the price you have given to an individual runner.

To have an advantage, you have to know what it is and why it exists...a price difference is not an advantage in itself.

Too many people do their ratings, churn out prices and think that diffences in price represent an advantage and all they have to do is bet the overs without another thought and everything will be sweet.

The problem is that first of all one is assuming their analysis and ratings are correct...thats fine we are all confronted with that issue...secondly and more importantly, it relies on the method you use to price being absolutely spot on at estimating winning chances. Really, if you have a 2 points difference in your ratings, can anyone honestly say their approch to converting those to a price is absolutely correct? Of course not.

If you price your top pick $2.80 and in the market it is a $3.10 favourite does that mean you have an advantage? Both you and the market have it as the horse to beat...and there is just a $0.30 differencce in your price...or an estimated 3% difference in winning chance.

The difference is a purely mathematical one, not a winning advantage...especilly when you and the market have the same opinion that is is the horse to beat. There is a broader context you need to understand to confirm whether or not there is an advantage.

The only way there is an advantage is if you have a belief with a firm reason why, that the market has something wrong in betting.

Maybe the 2nd favourite in the market is $4, but you don't think it has anywhere near that chance because of some form based reason, or conditions of today's race. Okay, now you have a sense of an advantage The market thinks the 2nd fav is a strong challenger to the fav but you don't think it is at all...if you are right, then the favourite is likely value. Is the fav a $2.80 chance as your price says? Who knows, it doesn't really matter....all you know is that you have an advantage and the horse is some value at $3.10.

Alternatively the 2nd fav could be $4 and you have it priced at $4.50...both you and the market see it as some logical danger, but there is a slight mathematical difference in your prices. In this situation you don't have an advantage, I can guarantee it.

Avoid betting in these type of situations and focus on the type presented above and I can guarantee that results will improve ...especially for those that set their prices and currently focus on just betting the overs.

A difference in price doesn't mean you have an advantage. The difference is slight but I hope it makes sense. :smile:




[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-11-26 10:23 ]