- What does this mean exactly? - That the TAB collect a lot more than they should out of the pool?

I have already collected out of my account! My plan is to empty the till at the end of every race day..=)

- That is what im trying to work out, whats the difference in looking at the form and stats of one horse and looking at the forms and stats of 3 or 4 horses? I am not doubting the fact that a lot of it is luck - but im talking about that edge which you get by looking into the race a bit. Im happy to invest $6-$12 flat betting on each race and have the possibility to increase my payout by at least 1000% per race, as opposed to put $3-$12 each way on each race, pick 1 horse and only have the possiblity to multiply my bet by at least 500% if that.. I know the chances of landing 1 horse is by far better than landing 3..

All 16 races which I put on were on Heavy, so that was probably the main thing which I looked at (that couldve been a downfall though as some of the horses have never run on heavy before) I havent had a chance to check if any of them ended up being ducks or not...

I'll tell you a couple of the ones which I ended up winning on, on Saturday and the reasons why I picked those particular horses:

11/7/09
Sandown R4 1600m Result:
1 9. Pliers 19.00
2 4. Apprehend 15.00
3 2. Eau De Joie 3.00

2,4,8,9 - boxed @ half unit - $12

2. Eau De Joie - heavy 2-1-1-0, Ran 2-12 2040m race, 1st at the distance (1600m) before that.. - (The Horse loves the wet and can run the distance no worries)
4. Apprehend - heavy 5-1-2-1, 2-12 its 2nd last start @ the distance (1600m) - (Horse loves the wet but it came 8th its last start, but came 2nd the time before that @ the distance) - I guess with this one I was hoping for a bit of value and hoping some punters may have overlooked its second last start to keep the value up.. worked out ok as it ended up being 15:1 for the win.
9. Pliers - heavy 2-1-0-0, 10-12 its last start, but 1-11 the start before that (1200m but led 2.5 lengths all the way) - I guess with this one I thought the horse loves the wet and it can definately run the distance, I was also hoping that the punters would overlook its 2nd last start and I guess they did with the market at $19 for it to win.

8. Arinya - I dont think this horse came 4th but I picked it and probably shouldnt have - on heavy 0-0-0-0, although last start at 1400m it won by 1 length - comments said that it was going well on soft ground, but I guess there is a big difference between soft and a puddle.


Sandown R6 1200m Result:
1 12. Signor Socks 31.00
2 1. In The Shadows 4.20
3 5. Silky Smooth 2.90

1,5,9,12 - boxed @ half unit - $12

1. In The Shadows - heavy 1-1-0-0, 1-13 last start at the distance (won by 1 length) - With this horse I thought that for a horse to win by 1 length against 13 other horses is pretty good - I guess other punters thought the same thing as the price ended up being 4:1
5. Silky Smooth - heavy 1-1-0-0, Last start 6-14 @ 1000m 2 lengths, comments said it was an even effort. - God knows why I picked this horse now that Im looking back at it, I guess because it was because its only win came from 1 heavy start..
12. Signor Socks - heavy 5-2-1-0, Last start came 2-8 on heavy, comments said that it came from the back and finished well, carrying the least amount of weight at 53kgs this race.. - I have got no idea why more punters didnt back this one at $31..

9. Amerryking - I dont think this horse came 4th but I picked it because its heavy was 4-2-1-1, last start ran the distance and came 2nd, comments were "made good ground"..

Geez it takes ages typing this up..lol Looking back at it I guess the main thing which I looked at was horses that have done well on heavy, and the last and probably more importantly 2nd last start, and also how they finished (how many lengths back/forward they ended up)..

Every race, there always seems to be ones which you obviously would never pick, then you find the ones which have a chance and then the ones which you think will win.
I think picking a mixture of ones that you think will win and ones which you think have a chance is the way which im going to keep picking mine from now on - nothing p***s you off more, than landing a trifecta and they're all paying $2-$3 - I think its better to not land one of them and get some value in your bets instead... Same with each ways - Id rather look at the odds first then pick the best looking horse at about the 10:1, even 15:1 mark - at least I know if I land it im going to get paid..

What criteria do you use?

Mine in order are:

1. Track conditions (I think the difference between slow-heavy is the biggest as opposed to fast-dead-slow. I hope MR and SR will be racing on heavy again this weekend!)
2. Form (Last and 2nd last race, even info on the latest trials if its resuming)
3. How much it won by previously and whether or not its run the distance recently.
4. Barrier which its starting from (I only usually take good notice of this if its a 1200m or less race)
5. The weight its carrying.
6. Jockey and stable which its coming from (Some Jockeys are good on some horses, some are crap.) No-one can resist a resuming horse from Waterhouses' stable - they're definately giving the horses some good oats there! lol
7. Comments about the horse in general (form, last start etc etc)