Thread: System Test
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  #16  
Old 17th July 2009, 01:56 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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We are not making fun of you personally Benny.
Its just the lads are having a go at a well known publication that says these lines with their plans showing massive returns, with a different plan every month.
All based on back tested results which don't seem to repeat themselves once we start using real money them.

Those figures of yours are excellent , but what we have all found on this site, including chaps like Stix who have massive data banks .
Many systems have been created that make excellent profits from back tested past results over several years.

We all do this because that's really the only thing available, I mean, no one has access to data from the future have they?

What we have all found, nearly all of then are lucky to break even once the real money goes on them.
It sounds weird but its true .
That's what makes system creation so frustrating.
We ask ourselves , why did the figures change so much, it has never done that before.

What I would suggest, is to put real money on the refined plan by all means , but its a strong idea to bet in a ratio of 1 / 200 bank, adjusted up & down daily.
I feel one will find the figures change usually within a month of what it has done historically.

You may have come across a plan that repeats itself consistently & I hope it does, but past history on the hundreds we have seen, seem to lean towards breaking even or a slight loss.

Better profits should be had if you bet to price using Betfair.
e.g. say $10 per race using 400.00 bank.

Price.
5.00 / 10.00 = O/L 2.00
2.20 / 10.00 = O/L 4.54
23.00 / 10.00 = O/L .43

Your SR may be fine but it will be the low TAB prices in the end that may kill
the plan long term.

Also try & prepare yourself for 20+ outs in a row , even though it has never done it before, because it usually will happen , its only a matter of time.

I'm sorry to sound like a downer & I hope I am totally wrong.
I only say this so as you can gear your bank & emotions accordingly.

Cheers my friend.
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Cheers.
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