Hi Airmets.

I think that you are working along correct lines.

I follow times and class to a degree.

If a horse is beaten more then 4 lengths, which is a far distance if you backed it, I would leave it out next run.

Things you my like to look at in regard to finishing times is if they made up 5 places from the 400 and finished within 4 lengths then they are ready to back next time .

Or if they run a class, race or track record they are ready to win if beaten less then 4 lens.

But with 1 large proviso -- they must have win rate on normal tracks of 16% min and 40% place ( i prefer 20% & 50 % )other wise it may have been a fluke run as they haven't been consistent in the past.

Cheers mate