Hi Partypooper,

It's a little hard to provide feedback unless you support your selections with comments as to why you like them as potential bets and what the value scenario is you envisage.

But, there probably isn't time for that now so I will add some comments on your first selection...

Race 3: Hartleys Dream

I see that is a contender. It has put together some wins by big margins but its worth noting that those races have lacked depth. In my view there hasn't been anything special about its speed in those races.

Examining its last run, it did appear to be ideally suited by the fast early speed and slow last section and only managed 3rd place beaten 0.8 lengths. The horse that won the race, Arken Silver, was a narrow 2nd in a Cl6 race prior to that and beaten 4.3L over 1000 by Hartleys Dream prior to that. It hasn't raced since. The horse than ran 2nd, beatig Hartleys Dream by 0.5L was Star Laser. It was only coming off an average Pinjarra maiden win.

So in summary Hartleys Dream (although carrying weight) was beaten into 3rd when suited in an average 3YO HCP race beaten by a prior 3YOCL6 winner and a Pinjarra Maiden winner. The figures from those races are only average and competitive with other main contenders in the field. This is no knock on the horses form, just a comment that in my view it stacks up similar to others in the race.

I don't have video comments for WA racing and I didn't see the run so I can't comment if there were any circumstances surrounding it. It does drop nicely in weight.

For what is is worth, I see Changing Lanes as the horse to beat. It's come off two solid performances in 3YO LR and G2 class where the pace was average without being overly fast in each. His figures are clear of others here. The form from his last run (0.2L 2nd to River Mist) looks to have held up quite well. The winner River Mist came out next start and finished 6th in the G1 Railway around some good horses like Roman Arch and Modem, beating home a horse like Tribula.

The 3rd horse that Changing Lanes beat home (Laetare) came out and finished 1L away in a 3YO LR next start. Magic Aces the 4th horse finished 1.3L away in the same race. Spirit Lady beaten 4L came out an won in 3YO G3 company next start.

In my opinion Changing Lanes has very good recent form in strong grade, the figures to go with it and the form references from his last run hold up nicely. Overall it seems to be stronger than the form of the others.

This is not meant to be a definitive yes or no answer about Hartleys Dream, it has a genuine chance. It's just an indication of one way of thinking which may be different to your own.

I don't really follow WA racing and I'm sure your familiarity with the conditions and runners is much better than mine.

Cheers :smile:



[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-12-06 07:27 ]

[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2003-12-06 07:29 ]