
7th December 2003, 08:17 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
Posts: 730
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Please don't take this personally (am only trying to give a few pointers) but some of those rules really don't make a lot of sense to me.
Firstly the results based on your rules as given, for all races this year, Tabcorp results, Saturday only, metro only (AR, MR, SR and BR) were as follows:
258 selections, 37 winners, 51 Unit Loss, -20% LOT
I then tried your "value" filter and looked at runners starting at $5 or over but less than $14:
134 selections, 8 winners, 78 unit loss, -58% LOT
Turns out most of the "value" is really under $5.00. If price <$5.00 we get:
93 selections, 26 winners, 2 unit loss, -2% LOT
In my OPINION there are a few things to thing about here:
1. Looking at last start finish position is not very helpful unless you also consider lengths beaten, class of race, etc. 5th in a race with only 5 runners beaten by 20 lengths is a LOT different to 5th in a field of 16 beaten by 1 length.
2. Eliminating 99-100 raters looking for "value" is not a good idea if you end up missing all the winners. There is no value in a horse that doesn't win.
3. In my experience using barrier position as a general rule achieves nothing. Whilst inner barriers do produce more winners the outer barriers generally give better prices - you could say there is value in those outer barriers.
4. Concentrate on the shorter priced starters as this is where the majority of winners and most of the "Value" really is.
Good luck with it.
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