Not an easy subject and I certainly don't know enough to write a book on it.

Stats will show that most winners are on- pacers or leaders. What they don't show is that most races are not truly run, but are jog and sprints. You might only find 1 or 2 races on a Sat. metro that will run at genuine pace, so naturally most races are won by leaders and on-pacers with a few mid-pacers winning too. The big problem with these jog and sprint slow races is the amount of interference and trouble horses and jockies get into. Form as a good guide to selection often then goes out the window!

A truly run race is where any [decent] backmarker comes into its own and they win a lot of these genuine pace races. Form without all the interferance going on in the slow races, holds up far better too.

I won nicely on Trusting at Syd. last Sat. as the race had about 4 leaders in it that set up a fast pace for Trusting to come over the top of them from behind. Look for genuinely run races for backmarkers and ignore them in jog and sprints.

Another angle is looking for races with only one leader in it and no on-pacers. The first thing that Jock does on the leader is slow the pace to a jog and takes off after the bend. He also has the advantage of avoiding all the slow pace caused problems going on behind him!

Money can be made from concentrating on both these two different type of races [one true paced and the other slow paced] I've lightly touched on here.

Good luck.