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28th August 2009, 10:59 PM
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 47
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It's a huge topic Researcher...I'd suggest checking out the US author Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping if you haven't already read it. Just to get more ideas.
As jackact says the difference's between US racing and Aust racing [both in terms of tempo where we position up then generally sprint home compared to all out speed - and different surfaces] mean a lot of the concepts don't transform as easily as you'd hope. Still Brohamer is good reading and may give you ideas.
Do a Google on Australian websites using the term 'Daniel O'Sullivan pace' for further info and stuff more relevant to Australia.
I had an interest in pace/sectionals years ago but moved away from it...it was more speed mapping I guess based on identifying which horses were backmarkers, midfield, on pace, opportunist leaders, out out leaders. That helped me work out the tempo, but moreso just the speed maps.
As a rough measure I used to take the overall time divided by furlongs per race - then do the same for the last 600m and then compare the two to work out whether it was a negative split. eg 1200m run in 1.10 with the last 600m 34.00 worked out to 70 secs divided by 6 [furlongs] = 11.66 overall. 34.00 divided by 3 [furlongs] 11.33 sectional. 11.33 - 11.66 = -0.33
Of course that's a pretty dodgy way of trying to compare a 1200m to an 1800m because the last 600m for both distances takes into account a vastly different % of the overall race. Still, after doing it for a bit it - with a bit of practice you would get a gut feel for the tempo. Using that dodgy maths most races will end up with a negative split but when it came close to being line ball or positive split you knew it was a hectic tempo.
Not sure if any of that helps...should say I moved on from this stuff as well
:-)
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