Sorry - couldn't resist Jaffa even though Crash has already mentioned this.

By your statistics in 10 horse races the inside 70% of barriers give 70% of winners and the outside 30% of barriers give 30% of winners. In the larger races, taking an average of 13 starters we get the inside 70% of barriers giving 75% of winners so the outside 30% of barriers gives 25% of winners. Not exactly earth-shattering bias there! Of course with the punters avoiding those outside barriers in droves I have no doubt that those 25% of winners will pay much better than the average so the POT for the outside barriers will be better.

Some more stats that some may find interesting. I checked the results for ALL races this year with a minimum of 14 actual starters. This gave just over 2000 races considered with a bit over 30700 starters.

B1 to B7 - 7.6% strike rate, $10.68 Ave Div for a LOT of 19%
B8 to B13 - 6.1% strike rate, $11.22 Ave Div for a LOT of 31%
B14 to B24 - 6.4% strike rate, $14.69 ave div for a LOT of only 5%

My point here is that inner barriers will generally have some advantage over outer barriers but the market OVERESTIMATES this advantage so runners from outside barriers are, generally speaking, better value than they should be. I am not suggesting that people should be looking to back outer barriers only, but if your selection is starting from an outside barrier I wouldn't discount it (maybe just increase your required price by a dollar or two).

As an example 2 weeks ago I had a runner rated clearly on top and was expecting a fairly short price - but it was starting from the outside barrier in a field of 16 (from memory) and it ended up starting well into double figures. It won nicely and I am sure if it had drawn barrier 1 I only would have got half the price. No doubt many others ignored it because of the barrier and put their money elsewhere.

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