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Old 3rd September 2009, 07:34 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Hi, Steve M.

With a profit over two years one would expect it to be solid system. However, it might depend on the number of bets? The reason I ask is that a certain publication that periodically sells systems will list the bets which often comes to a few hundred over a period of a couple of years or thereabouts. Then when their system is sold to the public it heads downhill.

Also, their rules are generally "rigid". For example, "placed at last two starts", "won the highest average prizemoney in the race", "last start within 18 days" etc.

I don't know the rules to your system, but if they are 'rigid" then the Shifting Sands Syndrome (Bhagwan, thanks for this term) will most likely eventually happen, just as it does with games of chance such as roulette.

Maybe if you can cross-reference your selections with a "non rigid" source, such as its Starting Price (Maria did this very successfully with a cut off price of $11), Unitab, DFS ratings, neurals, etc.

As evidence, a few years ago I purchased one of the publication's systems which eventually failed (how surprising), but I used a "non rigid" rule by betting those selections that had 100 points on Unitab. This proved profitable with each-way betting (remembering that the system over the same period went downhill). As the system was only for Saturday racing there was not too much action using my extra rule, and eventually I could not be bothered phoning for the selections even though it was showing a good profit.

So, applying a "non rigid" rule or rules to a system that is comprised of "rigid" rules might be the key or increase the possibility of a long term profit.
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