G'day.

I've noticed of late that a lot more jockeys are looking to race their horse to the lead and from a tactical point of view, this makes sense. Dictate some tempo, keep out of the way of any interference etc...but do they always run well? D. Peisley who generally rides out of the Gold Coast does this regularly with a some success. (He has one ride at Eagle Farm tomorrow).

Trying to determine pace from form guides though is difficult. The Sportsman's Zipform liftout section provides info as to the USUAL racing pattern of a horse but is it always reliable? When 4 likely leaders are nominated which one do we bet on? I've seen a race with 4 nominated leaders only then for a horse nominated to race "handy" run to the front and win. I've seen horses nominated as backmarkers up running second on the fence. Then again, I suppose we should use the information for what it is intended, a guide.

I have a mate who believed he could make money from betting on races up to 1400m at Moonee Valley where there was only 1 listed leader. His reasoning was that the short straight would be an advantage. You can guess what happened...

In trying to assess the pace of a race, I really think that you must consider primarily WHERE the race is being run. For example, is it down the Flemington straight or is it a Caulfield sprint where the rail is out 4 metres? Is it at Canterbury or Randwick? Eagle Farm or Doomben? Is an assessment of the pace a good indicator or is it merely track factors that condition our minds to pace being a key to punting profit? In this case, I really think that it is courses for horses rather than the reverse.

FWIW, I do not factor the pace of a race into any method that I apply to punting. I find that it is too unpredictable and steers the mind away from the issues that ARE predictable and recurring.

Cheers

Privateer