Chrome Prince,

A Horse that has won 4 times at Caufield from 4 starts would have strong claims to my bet [ amongst other considerations including value ] even though it might start favorite. Good form at a track usualy means more good form to be expected [ but not always naturaly ]. So what do we do , dump horses with good stats. because they will shorten the price beyond value ? Value is very subjective and the ability to disern it and measure it is owned by no single being. How many punters who visit this forum backed FOO racing in Hong Kong at what was it $3.50 somthing here when it was $30 over there ? Obviously to some it was a value bet.

'Horses for courses' has long ago become a figure of speech that can mean many things, even about things that have nothing to do with horses : 'sharp knife for a steak, not chopsticks' [ horses for courses ]. I used it to mean an orderly approach to future punting as in worry about one race at a time.

My point regarding backfitting was just a light hearted prod at the use of Stats. to bludgen a point to death. The problem of using stats to deal with selection or staking is that apart from being a great selection aid they can also lead to assumed wisdom and rightiousness, not just valid speculation amongst other valid speculation.

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-10 23:41 ]