
27th September 2009, 07:11 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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I have found that the 3rd Fav wins approx 13% of the time .
.13 x .13 x .13 = .22% chance of 3 in a row getting up.
Races with 9+ runners.
Min/Max price 6.00 - 7.30
Three in a row get up now & then if one waits for the previouse bets to settle first that way it breaks up the chain sequence of events a bit more thus avoiding the same thing getting up when we dont want them to.
What I find works well is to recover the loss at 120% over say 5-6 bets.
Over 6 cycles.
e.g.
5 / 120 = 24% of loss
6 / 120 = 20% of loss.
Plus add the initial bet amount to each race.
This covers the Betfair take out .
I use BetbotPro.
Back/Lay ratio 10%
That way we dont pay too much for our lay price.
If one wants a stand alone program to do this manually race to race, there is a program called TSM (The Staking Machine) that can do the calculation for you .
Costs approx $36
One can set this to recover loss only or set it to recover loss plus add initial bet for each race this also means that it makes it more expenssive to operate.
Bet ratio 1000 / 1
Stop at 3% profit for the day that way it minimises our chances of getting bit.
The more profit one goes for , the greater the chance of giving it all back.
Set stop loss at 25% of bank.
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Cheers.
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