6th October 2009, 11:46 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 441
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jfc
Simply using a Binomial Confidence Limits calculator would show:
46/176 reduces to a strike rate of 19.81%.
So even at an average div of 4.94 your system would be considered unprofitable long term.
47/176 would be ~break-even.
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Cheers JFC,
So given that, would you bin the system, or run more trials to get a better picture of what the actualy long term srtike rate would be?
Using the java stat page that I beleive you have linked to previously, if for example i enter 460/1760, I get a range of 24-28% (roughly) which would indicate a long term profit, if the divi holds up. |