Quote:
On 2003-12-16 22:33, hermes wrote:
There are inherent problems in and limitations to predicting the future from the past. The basic problem is that every race - every race! - is a totally unique event. There has never, ever been a race like it before and never will be again. Every Melbourne Cup is a totally unique event, regardless of the family resemblances between all the unique events labelled "Melbourne Cup".
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Yes they are independent events as are all races, but look at common denominators.
No sprinters win Melbourne Cups, horses must have had certain number of starts etc etc etc.
Statistics cannot tell you the coreect finishing order for a race, but can tell you wheter your selection is value and a good bet.
Statistics are used in numerous applications in society, they are not meant to predict the exact future as such, but tell you of continuing trends which continue to be profitable year in and year out.
As an example: 9 out of 10 Australians will rely on the Government for retirement income.
This statement comes from statistical research. It does not mean that exactly 9 out of 10 people in your street will be in this position, it simply means that ON AVERAGE this will be the case.
Therefore, lets say I have a system that shows 30% POT with a strike rate of 45%, it doesn't mean I'll win every day or week, but rather come out ahead over a month or year.
As to handicapping, is this not contained within stats anyway?
Or perhaps the two go hand in hand.
Incidentally, there are purely mechanical systems mentioned deep in the archives of this very forum that are still producing profit to this day :wink:
[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2003-12-16 23:58 ]