Question for the "non-system" folks! One of the main arguments from people who don't "believe" in systems (bah - next you will be telling me you don't believe in Santa!) is that you can't use the past to predict the future or that each race is unique and therefore no system can predict the results. The question is, therefore, why do you think your handicapping would work if a system can't? Surely your handicapping is based on past experience and the results of past races - if these are irrelevant then standard handicapping techniques are just as irrelevant as any system. So either you must concede that past results/experiences/trends ARE important and therefore systems based on these MAY work or we may as well all pack up and go home because this game is impossible!

In my opinion systems DO work, and they can work quite well provided they are based on sensible rules (eg. a system based on backing horses with Taurus in the name is obviously a load of Bull even though it would have worked well last week!).

So why do they stop working? In my opinion there are 2 main reasons:

1. They never actually worked in the first place. Backfitted systems sold by certain publications probably fall into this category! The system itself is not based on valid criteria and the fact it produced profit for a few months is nothing other than mere statistical co-incidence (or simply downright lying in the promotional material). Systems that rely on loss-chasing staking also fall into this category - they only show a profit because they haven't hit a losing streak of a certain length yet that will break the bank.

2. Overuse. Any system or handicapping relies on finding a big enough edge to overcome the bookie/TAB take and then make a profit. As we all know (I hope) when too much money is placed on a particular runner the price falls so the edge you have is reduced. If too many people are backing the same horse then the edge will eventually disappear. Of course they don't all have to be using the same system but if various systems are targetting similar characteristics then they will come up with similar selections (eg. lots of systems target last start winners so there is often no value left in these selections).

Combine these two reasons together and you will find very few published/sold systems work for any length of time. If they were valid in the first place and show a good profit then word-of-mouth will probably result in them becomming popular and their profitability will reduce.

Bottom line is if you want a really profitable system you will probably have to develop it yourself and then keep your mouth shut about how you are doing it!!!

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"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson