Hello All,

Becareful's point about handicappers using the past is a very valid point. Even those people who "do the form" are using past events to try to predict the future. Even in a first start 2yo, "form analysts" use past events to predict the outcome... Which horse has the better breeding, which has the better trainer, which looks the best, etc, etc.

I also agree with Crash that the line between systems and handicapping is very thin. I use Price Predictor. A good proportion of my systems are based on either one of it's ratings systems. Surely this is handicapping? I'll agree that it's purely mechanical handicapping, because I mostly back the selections blindly, but it's still handicapping.

As for why most systems fail, I wonder whether MOST systems do in fact fail? I suspect that MOST systems will hit a terrible run of outs, and that if the betting bank isn't structured correctly they will break the bank, but does the system actually fail in the long term?

Earlier this year I came across a free system, which I particularly liked. I started betting it, and after 56 bets it had a horrible strike rate, and I had lost half my bank. As of last weekend, it's strike rate is 35%, flat stakes POT is 26%, and with judicial use of a staking plan, the bank is 2.5 times what I started with. (actual POT 35%)

So, after 3 months and 56 bets, I would have considered this "system" a failure. Today it's easily my best performing system - the one that I put my largest bets on each Saturday.

I have done a lot of analysis on the "cash flow" of my systems - graphing the bank has been extremely useful. I've come to the realisation that most systems will be "down" for long periods of time. Even my best system has already had two 3 month stretches where it has been below it's previous bank high. Not a long way below, but below all the same.

I can be a very stubborn fellow at times.. when I start a system I generally bet it to the last dollar.... This has saved 3 of my systems so far, and these three continue to perform well at present.

Cheers,
Chris.