29th October 2009, 11:55 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 82
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We do need to cut out some of the losers, and it seems that the strike rate on shorter priced candidates isn't much better that on longshots, so yes, it makes sense to restrict bets to better priced candidates. Bhagwan, maybe we should take note of Crash's warning that 2nd starters are suspect, perhaps by ignoring the shorter priced ones.
Most winners seem to come from 1200m and up races, so this might be a filter. The reasoning would be that first start, a horse might be finding its feet in a shorter Maiden, and then improve sharply over a bit longer. I also see that a good number of the winners had a spell after their first run. The explanation here might be that something went wrong with the horse in the run first start, or pulled up sore, and therefore may improve sharply at the second try. Won't apply to all horses, but we need to catch only a few like the $17.00 winner yesterday to cover the losers.
Good luck with it!
Jackact
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