
19th December 2003, 10:24 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Australia/Poland
Posts: 12
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Hi Crash & Hermes,
Thanks for both your comments.
The method of selection that I have posted, I find that it works pretty well anywhere, especially in Australia/UK/Ireland. As you can see, I am a ‘Place Bettor’. As for many punters in Australia, I find the ‘place payout’ can be pitiful these days, but that’s not always the case.
Over many, many years I have studied racing in the UK – USA & Australia. When one looks at the ‘overall picture’ the figures and percentages add to the same. In other words, it’s no different in the U.K. Than it is in Australia.
When I look at the ‘form’ and this is only my personal view, I am interested in ‘recent form’ that being the last 4 weeks. Obviously I am looking for ‘good form’
The form 1-1-1 when running the next time out, (and this applies to ALL the countries mentioned above), won approximately 31% - the prices were predictably low and I am hesitant of supporting this horse on its next run. These days I would look at laying this one.
Horses showing the form 1-3-1 / 2-3-1 / 1-2-2 / 3-2-1 / 4-3-1 / and 4-2-1
Won between 28% and 30% - with the above, except one, all had won ‘the last time out’.
So, one horse in three is successful and if 3 or 4 horses are running in the same race with this kind of form, only one can win – and it probably will. The average has been achieved. With this, I have also had my 66% losses – all in one race!
I don’t bet on races with more than 2 horses showing this type of form – and then for a Place Bet Only – chances are both will be placed, if so then I make sure that only 1 horse has this ‘win’ last time out.
Just one other point on reading the form. The form could for example be …. 0-0-4 …at least this horse looks like it is improving… but when checking further back …I might find that when this horse came 4th, there were only four runners and with the 3 horses that came 1st 2nd and 3rd, winning by 4,5 and 6 lengths, this leaves the result of 4th of little use.
Anyway these are my personal thoughts and I do appreciate all the comments that are being made.
Regards
Freddy.
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