2009.11.25 results:

Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Islanders: Over 5.5 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker (1-2: LOSS)
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning PL -1.5 +225 (3.25) 5Dimes (3-4: LOSS)
Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals: Washington Capitals 3Way (1X2) +125 (2.25) Bookmaker (2-0: WIN)
Ottawa Senators @ New Jersey Devils: New Jersey Devils 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) (3-1: WIN)
New York Rangers @ Florida Panthers: Florida Panthers ML +100 (2.00) 5Dimes (1-2 SO: LOSS)
Boston Bruins @ Minnesota Wild: Boston Bruins 3Way (1X2) +130 (2.30) Bookmaker (1-2 SO: LOSS)
Nashville Predators @ Colorado Avalanche: Over 5.5 +115 (2.15) 5Dimes (3-4 OT: WIN)
Chicago Blackhawks @ San Jose Sharks: San Jose Sharks 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (2-7: LOSS)

2009.11.25 finished with a 3-5 and -1.45 units lost/8 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 39-68 (-17.23 units lost/108 units risked)


2009.11.26, 2 picks:

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Ottawa Senators

This will be a match up where the home team will do its straight 6th game at home and they'll host one team that will do their 5th road game in a row.

That spawn of time from both teams show us clearly which are their weak and strong spots. Columbus are allowing 4.14 goals per game during the season at the road. In their last 3 games, they allowed 6.33 goals per game. This is their handicap, they've got a poor defense, where they revealed some strength last year.

So far, this handicap has cost them many wins and they'll probably still struggle on the defense.

Ottawa in their last home games scored 3.80 goals per game and conceded only 2.20 goals per game. They also started this home games series with a loss, scoring only 1 goal and scratching their record for this home games streak. But since then, they've got 4 wins, including a blowout win against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

For this game, my angle is simple. Both teams will do their last game as a host (Ottawa) and as a visitor (Columbus). Being clear that the Senators are going through a good moment and have their best players on the offensive line, they can benefit from the fact that the Blue Jackets are having poor performances from their goaltenders and the same can be said for the rest of the players in this road trip as well.

Columbus is already with their mind on the next game, just hoping that this road trip comes to an end as soon as possible, to correct and improve their game at home.


Pick: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +130 (2.30) Bookmaker, Goalwin



Los Angeles Kings @ Vancouver Canucks

I confess that I didn't expect this line at 5.5 goals. It seems very unlikely that this game is going to have more than 4 goals. Even counting that is normal and frequent to have a late goal, even 5 goals could be a great line and that was the line I expected. But this added 0.5 give us a lot of extra value.

And why is that? Let's combine the LA Kings offense with the Vancouver Canucks defense. Kings at the road, usually scores 2 or less goals. Once in a while they score more goals than usual and that gives them 2.28 goals scored on road. But the Vancouver defense is on fire at home, playing very solid and allowing only 1.82 goals per game.

If we reverse the kind of match up, the Los Angeles Kings are also conceding a low number of goals on the road: 2.82 goals per game. The Canucks, scoring a 3.27 goals per game, have here an edge, but is not enough to give us value to bet on the canadian team.

So, on this game there isn't much more to say. The LA Kings started well the season, and then fell from the top places. The team were in a place that wasn't corresponding to the team's true talent. It will be a surprise to see the californian team fight for this game, as they are without confidence right now.

The Canucks wouldn't surprise if they could get empty nets, it will not be new for them. After a weak start they found their path and today they have to be careful, as they lost 1-0 last game at home. They have to play at their pace and make sure that they can manage the game on their will.

Also curious is the fact that in the last 6 games between these 2 teams, only once they scored more than 5 games and that score had exactly 6 goals. Take the under in this game.


Pick: Under 5.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek, -118 (1.85) Goalwin