To offer an alternative view point, form lines ARE one of the most important aspects in racing.

Identifying strong and weak form races is very helpful in doing the form in future events and finding runners you can have high confidence in to run either very well or worse than the market expects them to. Betting decisions depend on race conditions and the level of opposition being faced.

Runners out of good form races can be either good win bets, outstanding place bets if at nice odds, or excellent bankers in multiples.

My own approach to identifying strong races is centred on speed and pace ratings or to put it simply, the overall time relative to the first and last section. For example...a bunch of average horses can finish close up in 1200m race won in 70 seconds with a final section of 35 secs, but only a strong race will be won in 70 secs with a final section of 33.5secs. The final time is the same but the strength of the races are at opposite ends of the scale.

I personally compare the figures from each weeks races against others in my database from the last few years and get a feel for how the race ranks, relative to its own class and also relative to all classes. This historical benchmarking is a big edge in my punting.

Most strong form races I come across are ones that ranks a little better than the stated class. That doesn't mean I'm going to find 5 winners out of the race, but it means I can be confident that certain runners are likely to run very well in their next one or two runs. The opportunity to make money will depend on future race circumstances.

As an example... on 22/11/03 at Caulfield, race 3 was won by Bulbasaur and in my opinion the figures from that race stacked up as a a little better than the average open handicap. I expected the form out of the race to prove strong.

Since then...

5/12 Choreograph (2nd on 22/11 to Bulbasaur) came out and won by 5L at the MOV night meeting at a very generous $4.20 with up to $4.80 available.

13/12 Bulbasaur finished 2nd to Step Ahead at his next start. I expected him to win the race but Step Ahead is smart and was a shade too good. They ran blistering figures that day so Bulbasaur ran up to his form but found one better ont he day.

13/12 Don't Tell Tom (3rd on 22/11 behind BUlbasaur) ran 3rd in the race behind Step Ahead and Bulbasaur (again) at $8 and $2.10 the place.

13/12 Raja Lane (4th on 22/11) ran 2nd to Danrego at $10 in track record time. Again, I expected her to win and the price was sensational, she just found a very smart one better on the day.

18/12 Suit (well beaten 5th behind Bulbasaur on 22/11) came out and ran 3rd at $8 with 58kg's at his next start.

5/12 Little Dozer (beaten over 4L into 6th behind Bulbasaur) came out and ran 3rd at the MOV night meeting at over $10 on the tote.

20/12 Alqasar (beaten 4.6L into 7th behind Bulbasaur) came out and ran 1.1L 3rd in Open company at Flemington at $8

So from identifying one race as a little stronger than the typical Open Handicap the first 7 runners (down to 4.6L away from the winner) have all come out and run very well ..all of them at nice odds except Bulbasaur.

Another example that sticks in my mind purely from the profit that was made comes from June this year. On 14/6 there was a Gold Coast Maiden won by Velvet Mamma and the figures stacked up as especially strong for maiden class.

Out of that race...

Velvet Mama spelled but came back 1st up and ran 0.9L 3rd at 20/1

2nd horse Working Class Man won next start on 28/6 at $4.50 with similar strong figures which became a new race to follow.

3rd horse Squeel finished 2L behind Working Class Man in the race above (a new race to follow)

4th horse Aqua Dor (beaten 7.8L) finished 3rd at 25/1 next start.

Then following the race on 28/6 won by Working Class Man...

Working Class Man (1st on 28/6) came out and easily won next start at $6.50

Reality Check (2nd on 28/6) hasn't raced since

Aqua Dor (3rd on 28/6) ran 3rd in next start at $6.50 and won start after.

Squeel (4th on 28/6) easily won next start at $12

So personally I find the understanding of form lines to be both very important and immensely profitable. My own approach to benchmarking based on figures against events going back a couple of years is an ideal approach to identifying both strong and weak races. Its important that I validate my opinion as time goes on and adjust it if necessary. It also helps to have a good process and supporting tools to capture and monitor that information.

Merry xmas :smile: