Hi osulldj,

Twice in your post you said "but found one better on the day".

Isn't this the whole nuts and bolts of formline?

You got some nice winners and a string of placings from your time analysis, but a stronger horse beat two selections, when, if you'd done the time analysis on THOSE winners, you should have come up with the winner in the race.

I have to also discount the winners that won after a spell, you can't possibly attribute a time rating to today's race first up that was run over three months ago at the end of a preparation, surely?

My analysis of time rating has shown many flaws in using time - wind, rail position, position in running, weight variation, distance variation, different competitors, different track etc etc.

However, I agree that if you're selective about price and can see real value worth the risk, then you have something.

Analyse horses that break track records or win by over three lengths, and you'll see it equates to very poor value because of expectation of repeat performance.

Except for Champions, very few horses repeat their best run time wise, next time out.

Merry Christmas ans Happy New Year.