G'day Chrome,

There were no runners that won after a spell...one placed at 25/1 and I agree its not chased through from the previous form line.


You said...

"Twice in your post you said "but found one better on the day".
"Isn't this the whole nuts and bolts of formline?... if you'd done the time analysis on THOSE winners, you should have come up with the winner in the race."

Not really...do you expect that I pick the winner to every race? like I said...a strong race doesn't mean you have five winners at their next start...horses improve and decline and race circumstances are always different. Step Ahead was first up and on his best with form around Innovation Girl and Titanic Jack he was a super chance, it was a matter if he could produce it on the day and he did. Danrego isn't too shabby either and improved even further from her first up run to win that 2nd up race. It's plausible that they both won.

Formlines are about finding races where you expect good or weak form to follow through to future races. It's obviously impossible to say that horse A will win next start because its coming out of a strong race...especially when you don't even know the field it is coming up agains.

However, when the first 7 horses of one OPen Handicap race all come out and place at their next start, one of them winning by 5L..then I consider that a strong form line.

You also said...

"My analysis of time rating has shown many flaws in using time - wind, rail position, position in running, weight variation, distance variation, different competitors, different track etc etc."

That's your analysis...but my analysis earns me a handsome living and a big part of that is figure based formlines so it can't all be that bad.

Obviously there is more than one way to get the job done....no single one is right or wrong. There are people I know making a living from punting following ideas that I can't quite come into...but they get the job done with it..at the end of the day thats all that really matters.