Hi Stebbo,

Sectionals are available [the last 600m I am interested in] in town and overall times everywhere naturally. I'm looking at both and using these figures [and others] to look for form improvement that during a campaign points to when a future win is imminent. This for me anyway is easier to do than to write about as Osulldj has done so eloquently in describing formline.

As an example, I think my last tip here concerned the Traralgon Cup winner Just Cris who won the 1900m. race in 1.58.01. 2nd. was Sand Belt by a neck to Aggro 2.9 lth. 3rd. I will come back to Jus Cris a bit latter. Country Cup races is one area I do note the times to distances up to 2400m as I find them consistent and a great place to pick up city wins from the place getters at good odds.

When Sand Belt next appeared at MV with the top Jockey Noel Callow on board in a rather weak 2040m open Hcp. [again on a good track] the Traralgon time held up well and I pocketed a nice 6/1 profit on his win. Aggro's next start was last Sat. at Flemington on a dead track over 2550m. for a respectable 1.9 lth. 5th. A no bet. That race I believe was to reduce weight and improve odds as the distance was all wrong for him. His next start over 1900m. to 2040m on a good track should see a nice win at good odds [you read it here first !! ]. Look out for it.

Greg Eurell is a trainer I particularly like. He places his horses well and his efforts with Just Chris [had been suffering a lung infection prior to this campaign] was a good example, improving from a C3 at Cranbourne over 2025m in 2.07.22 carrying 56kg. to a Traralgon Cup Win in three starts. The 2040m. race 2nd.up at MV saw him beaten by only 1.5 lths for 5th. carrying 55kg. in an improved time of 2.07.30 with the last 600m. run in a respectable 36.53. His next start in the Cup with only 54kg. had my money all over him. Time was 1.58.01. Out to spell now I think. You can see by the times a horse on the improve to a good odds win.

Hope this has made some sense. With handicapping there is no correct way of doing things. Personal methods just develop over years without there being a 'formula'. Some punters are mostly formline handicappers but my niche is watching horse placement, trainers, times and weights. Formline is in there but for me not as prominently as it is for Osulldj.

This time of year I don't have as much free time and tend to pull out a couple of tried and tested systems to use until after the holidays. I don't back the selections blank but do a bit of general handicapping and if they stand up it's a bet. They are doing very well at the moment with two weeks of consistent profit but they don't produce the enjoyment that straight out handicapping does. It's the intellectual challenge of playing sleuth that's attractive.

Cheers and have a good Crissy.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-12-25 07:44 ]