12th December 2009, 09:00 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,417
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Yes, it's kind of what I do laying, but in reverse.
I did a very long study of bookies fluctuations and derived some very good information out of it.
However there were some caveats on the findings regarding transitions to real time.
I needed to consider what would be matched and what wouldn't on Betfair.
Some of the "if" statements were too pure to be accurate.
For example, if I backed every firmer at top fluc or better on Betfair, I'd make a killing. But the practicality of it is lost, as some horses fluctuated up and down and some of the time I'd be backing horses that later blew out.
This reduces the edge significantly.
Then by the time a true firmer is fully known, the edge has somewhat evapourated on Betfair after commission.
I did however, find it extremely effective laying several "sniff of firming" horses at once forming a part book, that would leave the true firming horse layed at a lower price.
So a practical example of my laying strategy:
Bookies
Horse A $2.00 $1.95 $1.90
Horse B $5.00 $4.50 $5.00
Horse C $9.00 $8.00 $10.00
My Betfair matches
Horse A $2.00 $1.95
Horse B $5.00
Horse C $9.00
So the portion of money allocated to horses B and C offset the price taken about horse A and reduce liability, so I've layed horse A at $1.95 (practically).
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