NBA 2010.01.06, first 5 picks:

New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks: Over 196.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves: Golden State Warriors +3 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves: Golden State Warriors ML +135 (2.35) Bookmaker

Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz: Utah Jazz -6.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns: Over 215 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.

I'm out of WAS @ CLE, I'm not "touching" it, can go either way.


Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are making a lousy season. The have a bad record at home and on the road as well. Today, they will face a bad road team, at least supposedly, but the true is that this bad road team can play better on road than Wolves at home. The records are pretty similar, however one team can play well and another just struggle to do it.

Timberwolves with only 4 wins at home, have their biggest problem on defense. They usually can't stop their opponents, and they can't also score enough to equalize teams that easily score. They usually score around 100 in their good days, and today against a run and gun team, perhaps they can score a little bit more, but they can't have the pace to win this contest. In their home game, they have an average of 93 points per game scored. But even if they got a window in their offense, their defense can't accomplish the same, as it's rare to them to allow less than 100 points. Against a team that have facilities to score, this can be a bad nigh to Wolves.

Warriors are the kind of team that gives a high pace to the game, and normally just play on the offensive side. They had a horrible lost last nigh on Denver, and they are aware that they can be better and achieve better results, specially when their frontcourt mens finally returned from injuries. Against a team that it's play a bad game, struggles on defense as well as on offense, the key of the game will be the offense. In that side, Warriors have a huge edge, and will probably easily win this contest.

Pick: Golden State Warriors +3 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker & GSW ML +135 (2.35) Bookmaker


Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns

This line should be so short, even if we keep in mind that both teams will make a B2B game, and Houston had yesterday one of the lowest pace game and lowest accuracy this season. But yesterday it was a different spot, Lakers were dealing with some injuries and were looking for revenge. Suns played on road, and made the enough to win, but still, they were able to score 116 points.

Today we will have a matchup where we have a huge value on over from my point of view. I expected a line around 227/2230, so we have almost 13 points on our side. Suns are strong at home, and they make the rules on their home games. And one of those rules is play fast. There are many teams that aren't able to keep that pace, others can lower a little bit Suns game and achieve win. But today they will face Rockets. And what are Rockets able to do since they lost Ming? Play a fast game, and try to keep the scoreboard balanced as much as they can. Despite last game, Rockets have the players that they can count with this season ok. This team can easily score 100 points, but against a team that forgets to defend many times, Rockets will probably be able to increase their score. And when Rockets "enter" this kind of game, they can easily forget their defense as well. And Suns at home, less than 115 points, is a kind of defeat.

Rockets will probably to Phoenix to fight the game in Suns rules. High pace, low defense. There are the ingredients for todays game. Both teams got players to make this game like this.

Pick: Over 215 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker