13th January 2010, 10:01 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,426
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Market Manipulation
Many years ago I did a bit of a study of tote versus bookie and various betting products. Bookies clearly won hands down at the sharp end of the market and the tote won at the longshot end.
Since the introduction of Mid Tote, Best Tote and the closure of winning punters accounts by bookies, big punters have made no secret of manipulating tote pools and taking best tote products with a large number of bookmakers to ensure that winnings are spread out.
What is amazing, is how this has turned the statistics for other smaller punters and how the takeout of the tabs can not necessarily equal a loss.
For this exercise I considered horses that were favoured and firmed in betting on track with the bookies.
As I'm considering firmers, Top Fluctuation is ruled out, as we wouldn't know enough in advance to get set.
Horses that opened $3.00 or less on track were considered and any movement below opening price was flagged, even if later is blew out in price again.
SP loses 7.24%
NSWTAB loses 0.66%
STAB loses 0.80%
UNiTAB loses 0.70%
Clearly now, the TABS are far better value, however, the bookies are miles ahead at Top Fluctuation, but only if you can correctly predict price movements.
At Top Fluctuation, you'd make 8.86%.
However, at best tote the result is (drumroll)
Best Tote 3.90%
Clearly the boys manipulating the markets by seeding bets on the tote on other horses to blow out the price of their fancy have turned the market around in the last five years.
I don't believe that this is bookies laying off on the tote, as the firmers would be less value, it is obviously market manipulation.
Just as a benchmark here are the returns on all horses opening $3.00 or less on track, regardless of whether they firmed or drifted.
SP -11.91%
Top Fluc - 6.59%
NSWTAB - 7.08%
STAB - 8.04%
UNiTAB - 8.28%
Best Tote - 1.91%
Interesting again that Best Tote is as close to breakeven you can get and beats Top Fluctuation hands down.
Just following the bigger players nets you 3.90% with no commission, and it would be easy to manipulate the prices with a couple of decent well placed wagers on the totes and dispersing your larger wagers with many corporates at best tote.
The market has changed remarkably.
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