1st February 2010, 11:25 AM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 441
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by michaelg
Yes, its not doing too badly at the moment.
However, my concern is that the prices I'm using for the accidents (25% on top of the Unitab liability) is unrealistic. For example, if the winner pays $3.00 on Unitab then I'm assuming a Betfair lay price of $3.80. If/when I start laying on Betfair only then will I know.
Two selections today:
Stawell R4 no.12 - Uma Love
Stawell R8 no.6 - Nevajoe.
|
I think 25% is more than enough. I have found from my thousands of results with UniTAB and BF lay prices recorded, that as a rule of thumb those under $10 are around %15-16 higher on average on BF, so I think using 25% if anything is being a bit excessive. However, it is better to err on the side of caution. Obviously once you start getting into the higher payers, the sky is the limit when it comes to Bf prices.
Generally if I'm testing a lay system using TAB divis I multiply by 1.2 to give me a feel as I usually am targetting those up to around $7 on BF max. |