One way of measuring class is the first 600m time, the last 600m time, the overall race time.

Assuming we stick to 1200m races for the moment for ease of comparison.
What is a better guide race time, pace or finishing speed?

Here are some impact values for horses that won over 1200m within 14 days.

**This is a guide only, you need a lot more data to accurately predict the impact values***

3,248 horse won over 1200m within 14 days
692 won their next start.
21.31% S/R 8.44% loss on turnover at tote prices.

94 horses ran their 1200m in under 69 seconds
26 of them won next start
27.66% S/R

52 horse ran their first 600m in less than 34 seconds
11 of them won their next start.
21.15%

214 horses ran their last 600m in less than 34 seconds
53 of them won their next start
24.77%

The actual race time and last 600m appear to be better guides than pace.

So we combine a fast race time with last 600m fast time (now it's been said that a fast last 600m will result in a fast race time anyway, I disagree, it depends on the pace.)

And here is the proof.

Combine fast last 600m with fast race time and we get
27 qualifiers
7 winners
25.92% S/R

Combine fast race time with fast early 600m and we get
19 qualifiers
3 winners
15.79%

Of course these are tiny sample sizes, but hypothetically these should be the best of the best, and they aren't!
So far the race time is the best indication regardless of pace or last 600m.

So what if we reverse what we believed to be true and look at it mirrored.

3076 horse ran their race in over 69 seconds
649 of them won next start
21.10%

3116 ran their first 600m in greater than 34 seconds
665 of them won next start
21.34%

2958 ran their last 600m in greater than 34 seconds
624 won their next start
21.09%

From this we see the biggest factor is the actual race time (with regards to 1200m races)

The top 10 race times over 1200m resulted in 5 winners next start.
50% strike rate.

And we haven't yet considered weight carried barrier position and most importantly track time or going.

We also haven't evaluated a second placed horse by various margins and given it a rating.

However I believe that times are irrelevant over distance races and sprints are pretty much the only category to benefit from this type of analysis.

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