Partypooper, you weren't far off with your rating of Twice. The problem for her was holding a career Peak out of the start before.
For those who factor time into their equations, the race before (won by Head West)
went over a second faster than the standard for that class, thereby pushing the ratings higher. If a horse can hold when it reaches it's peak, it means that horse has a base from which to kick to the next level, usually in it's next preperation.
If however you believe that the horse is doubtful to progress much beyond that class then the only place for her rating to go is down. This often happens at the next start and in fact also happened to Head West who couldn't hold his career peak finishing 8th in a class6 on new years day. Twice was definately a good risk, up in weight, distance and off a career peak, while the other main chance So Long Syd was on the rise. Also I doubt that the slow pace of the race helped Twice much. She preferrs a solid tempo.
The west IS a good place to concentrate your efforts on though. The tracks generally have less bias than the eastern states.
Cheers
Hope this helps