You can only say that the winner had 100% chance of winning the race AFTER the race. Before the race it had 33% chance (or whatever). If the same race with the same runners in the same conditions was run again it would then have a 100% chance of winning because, if all things are equal, it will win again. Which can't happen.

It is true than in *reality* the winner was going to win so in that sense it was a 100% thing, but the "chance" we ascribe to it is a human contrivance for human convenience, i.e. the chance is relative to the human ability to predict that it was going to win. What happened was never not going to happen, but human beings give themselves only a 33% chance of predicting it. So its the human ability to predict, not the reality of the outcome, to which the percentage refers. Or have I misunderstood you Lenny?

Hermes