On 2004-01-07 23:58, Lenny wrote:

Surely the same winner, in equal circumstances, will win again? Thus isn't the reality of any race really - winners chance:100% all others: 0%

No! Even if you put the same horses in the same barriers with the same conditions (track, wind, etc) you will not get exactly the same result. Horses (and jockeys) are not machines so they will not repeat the same performance twice.

If I take you to an indoor pool on 10 different days but with the same water temperature, etc, and get you to swim 100 metres will your time be exactly the same on all 10 occassions? Of course it wont - sometimes you will stuff up the start, sometimes your technique will be off, maybe you will mess up the turn, one day you will put it all together just right.

Exactly the same applies to a each horse in a race (and the jockey on its back). The "best" horse (the one we rate the best chance) will not always win for any number of reasons (bad start, blocked for a run, bad choice by the jockey, the horse is not running up to its best on the day or simply another runner puts it all together perfectly) but if you ran the race again any one of these could be different and the horse may win.

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