Hi guys,

Getting back on track here (not that I'm not interesting in the dogs - interesting punting option!). The purpose of the discussion was to clarify some mathematical assumptions (as this forum group is about systems). I believe what my ramblings boil down to is this: a horse that is super fit and bolts in in 6 lengths is likely to repeat the act in the SAME race, if it could be repeated (which it can't - hence the earlier conceptual difficulty). The less the estimated win length, the more the danger of inrunning influences.

After considering the likelyhood of a 6L winning bolter to repeat the performance to be near 100% and further considering what Hermes wrote earlier, I now think (my) handicapping is a matter looking for the likely percentage variation in the honest running of all horses in the race.

If I get a good estimate of the theoretical running of the field (by using for example Price Predictor Pro), then I can estimate what influence sll contenders may have in influencing the winners run by considering running style, jockey and barrier position.

Thus I guess I believe that getting a clear estimate of how a race will be run can be used to reduce or increase the likelyhood that a selection will perform to its rated best. Perhaps this is just repeating a simpler philosophy, but I like reinventing the wheel my way :wink:

~Lenny