No worries, Kenchar. :smile:

To me (and many others I'm sure), there are three key notions to winning at the races. The right horse, the right race and the right price. We all know the right horse is not always the one that is in form and rated the highest, it can suffer due to its running style, the track shape, direction of running, jockey, BP, etc.

I'm trying to quantify what influence the actual race has on a top form runner, and find out to what extent in-race circumstances will affect its run. If I can convert the best and worse possible race for a selection into kilograms or lengths, then perhaps I have a way of handicapping that can bypass the multitude of variables that keeps guarenteed winners elusive. If the worst case rating of a selection is beyond the best case rating of all other runners, its a darned good bet.

~Lenny


[ This Message was edited by: Lenny on 2004-01-11 04:33 ]