3rd April 2010, 09:37 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,417
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I think everyone struggles to make times pay at one point or another.
To be candid, the other product has a newer way of calculating pars which has seen somewhere in the vicinity of a 4% to 6% improvement.
I'm not convinced they are doing it the right way though.
A tell tale is in the odds generated for their pp market.
I don't want to go into this much more, as I'm not a product knocker.
I personally have it and it suits a purpose, but in my opinion there are a number of shortcomings I'll keep to myself.
Onto other things.
The trots are a very good learning place about the impact time.
Two horses can run a mile in 1:59.90, one can be a champion, the other a battler from the bush. The key is in knowing how to rate the same exact times differently.
If one used 1:59.90, you'd have them rated equally, one will be well unders, the other well overs.
One will continue to win races, the other may win one more race in it's career.
Given that the trots are run a little differently, the main principles are the same.
Running time tells you the race was a competitive race, but it doesn't tell you if the horse won running away or won by a lip under the persuader.
It doesn't account for position in running, if it swooped from the back or was taken on up front, or left alone up front and dictated the whole race.
Of the two 1:59.90 horses, it is crucial to know how fast they did their early splits in and how fast they came home.
They could have jogged early and flew home for a sizzling final quarter adding to an overalll quick time.
OR they could have gone hard early, took a breather mid race and sizzled home.
OR they could have sizzled early and plodded home
All having the same race time.
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