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Old 16th June 2010, 07:47 AM
TWOBETS TWOBETS is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 204
Smile The cat amongst the pigeons

“It depends a lot on your strike rate and personality type.”
For my money it depends entirely on your strike rate and average dividend.

I also believe that if one is expecting to live off the profits of punting, then staking variables should only be considered once a system has proved itself profitable at level stakes.

“it is impossible to make money with under priced horses”
While I agree that this is usually the case, the above concept is far too simplistic. Bring on the shorties !.......
Surely if a horse wins and pays $1.10 for the win then the people that layed it were wrong. I know that most people assume that this was just one race and over ten races then that horse would lose 2 or 3 so in fact the people that backed it were the mugs. This is of course where I disagree. That race isn’t the same as the next nine races. If you know your stuff and you know this horse is going to win this race then $1.10 was a great price to score. Now please somebody don’t start with the “what if a seagull comes and hits him in the face” or “what if the jockey has a heart attack”.

What it boils down to is your own strike rate at any given odds scenario. Whether the horse is overs or unders depends on whether it wins or loses. If you thought a horse was overs and it loses then it wasn’t overs, it was that you overlooked something in assessing the race. (and vice versa of course).

So again gents, I’m not disagreeing with you, I just think you are missing the relevance of your own particular strike rate.
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"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"
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