3rd July 2010, 10:05 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,425
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I agree with wesmip.
I've also seen postings regarding anything "unders" is a good bet.
Perception and reality are two different animals.
When you're in the midst of a roll one way or another, it's easy to draw skewed conclusions, but taking a subjective step back often forms a better perspective.
I also automate my lays, which enables me to do other things rather than anxiously ruminate over every transaction, it also allows me to form a broader view of results.
Here is an example:
The last two weeks of June I trebled my bank, everything I laid (it seemed) went in my favour, I did really well.
Confidence was at an all time high, and I really could have gone silly with my staking - luckily I didn't.
The first week of July has been unimaginable.
My lays have just kept winning.
I have lost 50% of the profit of June in just three days.
I guess the moral of the story, is to know your edge, know when your results are better than expected and worse than expected, and simply count on the expected margin.
I expect to come out well ahead for July, but not after some major results against me.
Persistance and patience pay, but are sometimes hard to contend with.
Even during this downturn, I'm actually adding value my way, as my commission rate is falling quite rapidly. So when the tide turns, not ony do I have the odds in my favour, I have better odds in my favour, so the profits will be a little better than normal.
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