
16th August 2010, 08:17 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,788
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I've had a look at last Saturday for the method. The criteria I've used is that there must be at least two last start winners in the race.
The result for the four major states:
14 races for 9 smiles.
5 accidents for a total liabilty (NSW divvies) of $7.00.
The result for the other states.
13 races for 6 smiles.
7 accidents for a total liability of $12.20.
From the grand total of 27 races, 12 faves won and 19 placed.
Betting them on Betfair would most likely have produced acceptable profits for both Win and Place.
EDIT
I've now looked at the opposite for Saturday, where only one horse must be a last start winner. No Maidens. I don't know if Darwin R3 was a Maiden, but the fave lost, which I have not shown in the results below.
30 races.
6 accidents
Total TAB liabilty $10.60.
24 smiles for a return of $22.80
Adding 33% to NSW TAB divvies = $14.10
Overall result = +$8.70
There were
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