View Single Post
  #187  
Old 17th August 2010, 10:05 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 11,983
Default

Hi,

Here's some stuff I posted on another forum a while back (Thursday June 24) about this sort of thing.....



I have to say that I don't really like to tell people how to use the ratings. There are lots of ways you can use them, and different people bet in different ways. What I suggest may not be to everyone's liking.

Depending on the race, I will back anything up to 4 horses. But that's not very often. That's usually only in big feature races that are wide open. As a rule, I generally like to bet on races where 2 horses seem to stand out from the rest.

These are just guidelines I use, not absolute hard and fast rules, but they give you an idea.

1 - No more than 4 horses in bold (preferably 3).
2 - No more than 2 horses with 20+ ratings points.
3 - Total ratings points of the first 2 picks combined is at least 55 (preferably 60+).
4 - 2nd rater at least 5 points ahead of the 3rd rated horse (preferably 10+).

Using those basic guidelines, these are the races I concentrated on yesterday (Wednesday, June 23):
Doomben race 5 - Johanski & Topping
Doomben race 7 - Catallion & Equable $4.00
Doomben race 8 - Whathappenedhenry $2.90 & Chinner Street
Gosford race 7 - Border Rebel $2.20 & Skytrain
Gosford race 8 - Petraeus & Northfield Planet
Moonee Valley race 6 - Have A Shot $3.70 & Rollins
Balaklava race 5 - Rose Of Barabba & Manganese $3.70
Balaklava race 8 - Ring Me Not $5.80 & Catsonsong
Belmont race 8 - Like Wildfire & Bermaise $5.40
Belmont race 9 - Need Luck & Rocking The Blues $4.50

Now, these "2 horse races" aren't the only ones I ever bet on. But that just gives you some idea of what you can do. In some of the other races that don't fit those guidelines, I will look for a top rater that I think is dominant or else I'll go for one of the bold rated runners who is at good "overs" compared to it's rated price. For example, on Tuesday at Warwick Farm I had Thumbtacks which was rated at $4.80 and paid $7.70.

As far as betting to prices goes, I do, but I'm not exact about it. I don't make things too technical. I basically just go by these simple rules. If the horse is rated on 40+ points, I bet 4 units. If it's 30-39 points, I bet 3 units. If it's 20-29 points, I bet 2 units. And if it's less than 20 points, I bet 1 unit.

So, with those races yesterday.....

Doomben race 5 - Johanski (4) & Topping (1)
Doomben race 7 - Catallion (3) & Equable $4.00 (3)
Doomben race 8 - Whathappenedhenry $2.90 (4) & Chinner Street (2)
Gosford race 7 - Border Rebel $2.20 (3) & Skytrain (3)
Gosford race 8 - Petraeus (4) & Northfield Planet (2)
Moonee Valley race 6 - Have A Shot $3.70 (3) & Rollins (2)
Balaklava race 5 - Rose Of Barabba (4) & Manganese $3.70 (2)
Balaklava race 8 - Ring Me Not $5.80 (3) & Catsonsong (2)
Belmont race 8 - Like Wildfire (3) & Bermaise $5.40 (3)
Belmont race 9 - Need Luck (3) & Rocking The Blues $4.50 (2)

Now, when it comes to exotic bets, "flexi betting" is my friend. I tend to mainly concentrate on the bigger more open races and I will often box up all of the horses which are rated above the line. I take it for a small %, and hope for perhaps a bit of an upset with something like the 6th rater beating the 5th rater and the 4th rater. There have been some good divs over the years boxing up all the runners above the line. And you can get some good results taking all these horses in doubles, trebles and quaddies. But I do stress that I'm a bit of a coward and I only ever take it for a small %
Reply With Quote