Hi Michaleg,

I hope you're back is a little better mate! I basically came up with this system while I was bored waiting for another of your extremely inspirational system ideas!

I think it's paramount that any system in the end compares itself to the other runners before coming up with a final selection. In the case of Shotfire Joker it was probably at such a generous price due to it just scraping in on the top third average prizemoney. The other runners were better credentialed money-wise but probably lacked the experience at the tight Ipswich circuit which brings many gallopers undone.

To get two winners at $4.30 and $7.20 respectively is ridiculous (extremely lucky) considering they had both won their last two starts.

I have been working like the proverbial dog the last two days so haven't had the time to check Saturday's selections/results. I'd imagine it would be necessary to add filters such as no WFA, Group racing etc for Saturdays.

I also think one mitigating factor that people often underestimate is track condition. If a horse has won on Good but not Dead. NOT GOOD ENOUGH. It's amazing the effect it has. Some horses need the sting out as they have bad joints etc. Others have the type of action that is ineffective in the wet and dynamite on a dry track (Snow Alert) for instance.

One rule of thumb:

If your selection is unproven in the conditions, add 3 points to your minimum acceptable price.

E.g. If your minimum price is $2, that selection will now have to be running at $5 for you to bet. You will save money, following this principle.

Any thoughts on this subject are greatly appreciated.

Results:

Geelong

8/ 3 Kid Capone WON $4.30

Ipswich

6/ 4 Shotfire Joker WON $7.20

Out 3
In 13.5

The Schmile