19th September 2010, 02:06 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
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Profit From Bookmaker Rules
Long seen as the "enemy", the bookmaker is actually a punter's friend.
Reading through the terms and conditions of any bookmaking site, it is clear they are telling us how to win.
They will close accounts of anyone who only backs firmers from the track early.
They will also be fairly quick to limit wagers from winning accounts.
To that end, I did a little excercise covering the last six Saturday meetings all tracks.
I considered only those horses where the final bookie price was less than the opening price.
This left me with 481 contenders.
Here is the profit breakdown with no other filters:
Bookie SP -55.65 units or -11.57%
NSWTAB +15.30 units or +3.18%
UNiTAB +21.70 units or +4.51%
STAB +37.20 units or +7.73%
Best Tote +64.70 units or +13.45%
Top Fluctuation +100.75 units or +20.95%
Betfair SP +123.92 units or +25.76%
So deducting 5% off Betfair profits (assuming you were on the highest commission), you are actually getting virtual Top Fluctuation through Betfair, which is closed well before prices are put up with the bookies.
Of course there were a few bolters in there, but some savvy price filters can increase the strike rate.
It is also quite easy to see how a small percentage discount from the TABS to high rollers, makes the job easy.
Most high rollers know less about racing than the average joe, they just know odds and how to splash cash around to qualify for incentives.
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