20th September 2010, 08:12 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 1,007
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Stugots,
Why do you think that TAB would increase their commissions ? I think that one tote isn't about ONE tote , but rather one comingled pool.
Personally, and it is also the opinion of lot of people that I speak with, the options and choice for punters ends at about $250 bet. Try to get anything larger then that on and see what choice you have. This is so well documented by MANY serious punters. You will most likely have a choice of closed accounts, restricted betting products, reduced odds, rejected bets, reduced bet size. Choices ? Its all just crap that works for a $10 weekend warrior. Its much harder to do with bigger bets. Forget about the claims of corporate that they will take anything on . LOL Have you seen the small print from Tom W. ???? web site? The select clients he takes on for good money AREN'T certainly getting best fluck , or best tote or anything like that! They get fixed price that isn't at ALL that generous.
I have written something about this before, what most people think is a choice is an illusion. Lets say that you operate a $50 test system. You have gotten good results shopping here and there and everywhere. Now you are ready to escalate, and really start punting not for fun (no such thing) but to make a living which is what all of us want to do. You start betting $1000, all of a sudden your bets which would have been excepted at $7 for $50 without a problem, are reduced to $250 and they tighten the price to $6 or worse. All of a sudden your 'cream' has gone sour, because you can't get it and so the results you HAD when testing can't be replicated ! Start punting with serious money and most of the methods that people employ will not be able to be replicated. (I don't mean any disrespect referring to seriousness of anyone's punting) What about a longshot system, like those that are being 'offered' here? You think that you have a choice ? You think that you can get set for $100 at $70 ? May be once. Win twice like that and they will cut you or close the account. Put that on any of the TAB's and your div will be halved. That is why Aus Tote, and Typhoon pools all pulled out! No one serious enough COULD BET WITH THEM ! Their prices were always better , sure if you bet cents not dollars !!! Stick a $100 bet on anything in those pools and you made a new favorite. On a small scale this is exactly the problem most larger punters face. Fragmentation of the overall pool size doesn't serve almost anyone !
Its a simplistic view, and sure you could have 10 accounts and bet $100 with them all. Good luck managing this because not all will have that premium price ! Unfortunately those that will oppose this view will be those that I wish the best of luck and good fortune. I want them to be successful shopping around ! Why ? Because sooner rather then later I will be proven right, because Its a fact !
One comingled pool would instantly eliminate the Bookies 'stealing' revenue from the TAB, (more money for the industry - supposedly) as all the bookies would just start dumping most their risk back in the pool anyway. You would still have choice - Fixed price, Early markets, Best fluck, Betfair, Tote plus 5% or what ever on the corporate sites. They would love it as there won't be any surprises, like unitab dropping their com and making them payout much more then they anticipated. I actually think that the bookies (those that stayed in business) would breathe a sight of relief and might be a bit more adventurous with their fixed products.
There would still be competition between the TAB's because they get paid based on the amount that they placed into the pool, so they might give incentives more freely, to medium punters if not just through their corporate arms like luxbet and centerracing. They will be still 3 - 6 different TOTE entities that they are now each of the states has their own gov. controlling it. Betfair will still be a major competitor to keep the com's stable.
What makes you think that they cant all just put up their commissions now ? Especially as they don't need to agree and aren't bounded by any agreements.
Fragmentation of the punting dollar is bad, the more choice (thinner spread) the money is the less REAL choice there is. HK is huge , because they attract the right investors with that product. That can only happen with large enough pools. If you were to comingle just the 3 main totes (plus their already comingling partners) you might have something like $200,000+ win pool on a normal country race. May be $1 mil + on a metro race on a Saturday. This would start drawing out punters from the wood work. The size would be probably even larger then that due to the corporate dumps. Then watch the overseas investments come in ! It will take a while, but they will come. Stability of the price is what will draw them in and the punting product freequency.
A lot of the bullshist would be able to be let go , managing 5 family members accounts in order to get a bet on ( as one forum member eluded to somewhere here), the frustration of being cut down, back or rejected. The absolute devastation when the tote you chose has the lowest div and so on. The increased stability in the price will allow punters to punt not manage accounts ! That is the real problem. Ofcourse it can be done, but it would just be great if you saw a horse and said yep I will bet on that and pressed a button and KNOW that you would get a fair price.
Works in HK, they have no corporates ! Well, we can't do that here, they have that good gov. there that does what it wants ! But we can certainly reduce the fragmentation of the product being offered with one tote pool.
Just my thoughts.
Michal
PS I also forgot to mention that Betfair has a speciall rate for those that become too sucessfull. Its called Premium Charges ! See how fast the bouble bursts when that gets applied and see what choices punter have then !
PSPS Party that $11 winner you missed out on, are you sure that you would have got ALL your bet on at that price ? Was that price available at the time that YOU wanted to bet ? or was it the last few bucks of the desperados trying to pinch a few bucks at the start of the race??? and if you used the SP would have your bet in that 'pool' still produced the same div ?
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