
20th September 2010, 08:10 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 58
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Calling maths experts...
Hey guys another set of questions, sorry but you knowledgeable know a s***load more than myself, so I have to ask.
Number of tests to have confidence???
After more research on this forum I found some interesting equations. My results are as follows:
seln 158
ret 217.9
w 52
s/r 32.9%
ave div $4.19
lowest $2
highest $7.7
longest run of outs 9
longest run of ins 4
exp = ((DECSP-1) *W%) -L%
exp = ((4.19-1) * 0.329) - 0.671
exp = (3.19 * 0.329) - 0.671
exp = 1.0495 - 0.671
exp = 0.3785 (37.8% profit for each dollar bet)
MINAP (minimum acceptable profit) I would be very happy with 20%)
ERR = W% - (1+MINAP / DECSP)
ERR = 0.329 - (1+0.20 / 4.19)
ERR = 0.329 - 0.2864
ERR = 0.0426
Confidence level (Z) input 90% confidence = 1.65
TESTS = W% * L% * (Z / ERR) * (Z / ERR)
TESTS = 0.329 * 0.671 * (1.65 / 0.0426) * (1.65 / 0.0426)
TESTS = 0.329 * 0.671 * 38.7324 *38.7324
TESTS = 331.1824
So did I work this out correctly? After 331 bets I can be 90% confident of making 20c on every dollar bet?
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!
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