Michael,

Which tracks are you excluding.

Just as a quick response:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months under $5 have a negative expectation of $1.14 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.03 higher then break even). There were a total of 501 selections for 140 winners. I only included claiming apprentices (ie weight off of 0.5kgs or more). In this time frame you would have either made money or lost depending on the staking method (risked amount vs level stakes).

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months under $3 have a negative expectation of $1.22 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.22 higher then break even). There were a total of 119 selections for 53 winners. You would have lost regardless of staking method used.

Of all the courses which had at least 10 results in the range up to $5 only 1 course had a positive expectation (canterbury).

It may be short term spectacular but work out your expectation and you will know if its worthwhile continuing.

Taking the odds higher doesn't help either:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months between $3 and $10 have a negative expectation of $1.54 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.54 higher then break even). There were a total of 1342 selections for 226 winners. You would have lost regardless of staking method used.


Maybe the prepost price makes a difference. We can use unitab 100 rated or top pick as a filter if that helps for comparison:

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months and rated 100 unitab up to $5 have a negative expectation of $1.06 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.06 higher then break even). There were a total of 168 selections for 49 winners.

All Claiming Apprententices last 2 months and tipped first and up to $5 have a negative expectation of $1.27 (Meaning on average you are laying at odds of $1.27 higher then break even). There were a total of 290 selections for 90 winners.

Feel free to follow it but the numbers rarely lie.

If you want something else tested just let me know.