Quite often a horse will win at decent odds. After looking at it's past form sometimes it will have run in a higher class race, I'm using prizemoney to judge class in this hypothetical example.

Just because the horse ran in the higher prizemoney/class race doesn't mean it actually belonged in that class or was even competetive. So for example a horse runs 6.5 lenghts behind winner in a $100,000 race, drops to a $30,000 race and wins at good odds.

How many lenghts from the winner would you judge to be competetive if a horse runs in a higher class of race than it usually does? Just looking for ideas.

Thanks,
Peter