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Old 10th February 2004, 01:30 AM
puntz
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One of the factors not realized by those who try to watch price fluctuations as means of determining who is betting on what, is the prices come from someone else doing the form, making a calculated bet, and there you have part of the market's "reflection".
Now let's say everyone tried to follow prices, but no one did actual form. The whole structre of the market would be baseless. Mostly based on speculation.
If "Aunt Nelly" fancied a bet on pension day and told her cuz, "what a wonderfull day it is to put a bet on, life is too short so better hurry", and they all went down to the TAB, placed their bets then told the entire bowling club, "the sun is shining put a bet on", BUT not one had done any form, then is that how one of those "follow the money system" work ? based on speculation ?
And who's speculation I might add?
It comes down to form, and if your form type selection prove a hit, then yeah, maybe follow the money to confirm one way or the other many have a similar opinion on your form/rated selections to !
Yet again, who's opinion are you going to back ?
Yours, or "Aunt Nelly's hubby by the way watching SKY channel tipsters draw the late money in like sheep to the slaughter ?

The late money system was ok when it was first come about, but soon after the idea gained popularity, many thought it was the "short-cut" to TAB riches...I don't think it has much merit these days on a grand scale...Just watch the prices tumble, and then even more on your returns when one of these systems are tried.
Finaly, a spreadhseet is all it takes to see the basics of how this calculation is done.
If a price is 10.00 @ "time X" and 7.50 @ "time Y", go figure...
Nup...
But if you done some form, rated your form selections and "see" your own selection go from 10.00 to 7.50..then you have the edge. Not the other way round...loses in the long run.
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