Michaelg,
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Shouldn't the positive expectation be 89%, which is very high seeing that all the selections are at single figures, and the results from the past 3 months are very impressive. Just for comparison, is it possible to look at the results assuming the selections had been layed for the same stake ($20?), and not to a liability of $100?
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The positive expectation is worked out using this formula:
(1-(StrikeRate)*0.95 )-(StrikeRate)*(Average odds of all Runner)
Where strike rate is your lay strike rate ie. 194/217 = 89.4% (ie there were 23 winners).
It tells you your edge ... which is 6% using this system.
Laying to the same stake makes the following return : $20 stake returned $1225.60 after 5% commission.
The better way to lay is to a fixed risk though as that is true level stakes for laying.
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The combined ranking of 21 - I assume it is a minimum of 21.
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Yes that is right. 21 is accepted as a bet.
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To have a very low rating in the CF algorithym would more or less mean the selection is resuming from a spell. I have always been uncomfortable laying these, but maybe the poor record of the trainer compensates for this. Have you looked at replacing the CF category with CP or another category?
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You could be right. In fact of the (now 218) selections there were 140 had their last start 28 days or more before todays race. If you assume using unitab X as resuming then there were 112 selections resuming.
There was 1 selection today:
Seymour R8 Chilled by Choice ... it won though. Ranked 8th CF and 15th for trainer.
Feel free to add more filters when you look at the selections. Adding 1 more filter takes the results from a 6% edge to a 12% edge. Adding 2 filters takes it to a 21% edge. Its just about finding the right filters to look through. The filters i use are unitab rating != 100 and not a Distance winner.
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Have you looked at replacing the CF category with CP or another category?
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CP dropped the selection count to 146 and gave a positive 0.01% expectation and showed a $ profit of $598.50