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30th October 2010, 07:03 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 225
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I just had a brief look at the 12m ratings at Doomben. Looking for lay opportunities, I feel we should only look at horses whose 12m rating is at least 4 kg below the best in the race & ranked outside the top 4.
Why 4kg? Mark Reads old adage that 2.25 lengths equals a 'grade', so 3.5kg roughly equals a grade when considering the class & weight ratings.
I was looking at horses that you could lay at less than $20. I found 13 in Brissy for 1 winner around the $5 mark, so a profit today. In race 7 at Syd there was Domitian, Godfather & Verminator, all unplaced.
Another filter might be needed. As for price, I dont mind laying at $20-$30 just so long as your not offering a premium over the TABs. Someone suggested that you multiply Tab price by 1.2 & if you cant lay at that price or less, move on. Thats the sort of rule i will incorporate.
I cant get fussed with the neurals though.
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