15th November 2010, 04:12 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 54
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by michaelg
Lighthuman2012,
I used to have a calculator where the Win prices of the three placegetters would be inputted, and the true trifecta divvy (it included the TAB 20% take-out) would then be calculated.
It soon became very obvious that the shorter the fave then the smaller the TAB trifecta divvy when compared to the true divvy. This was at its worst when the fave won the race, not too bad when it ran second, and was more or less what was expected when it ran third.
According to the calculator, even if one priced a $3 horse at even-money, it would in the long run pay less than what was expected, even though it might be profitable at Win betting depending on the accuracy of the ratings..
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michaelg,
Of course you are going to have flucuations in the trifecta div comparing it to the prices of the win pool. But if you are only using value selections as "standouts" in your exoctic bets, then you will win long-term no matter the price. But then again if you are using the wrong combination formula it won't work either.
If you don't want to deal with low divs, then don't bet in the races where your value selection is still the short price fav. Why take it out altogether and still bet if it is your top rater and value? There is no logic to that.
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